it all depends on the marketing. Microsoft HAS to market this game like its the Jesus Christ of video games AKA Halo 4 if they want to see sales even close to halo 3. Im not saying its impossible but it is very unlikely that this game will surpass Halo 3 in terms of copies sold.
As for Halo being Microsofts only heavy hitter you are Wrong. Splinter Cell: Conviction and Alan Wake should sell very well especially if Microsoft markets them well. Also your forgetting about a little game called Mass Effect 2! That game is going to sell boatloads and you also forgot Crackdown 2. That game should also be a Multi million seller.
I mostly play RTS and Moba style games now adays as well as ALOT of benchmarking. I do play other games however such as the witcher 3 and Crysis 3, and recently Ashes of the Singularity. I love gaming on the cutting edge and refuse to accept any compromises. Proud member of the Glorious PC Gaming Master Race. Long Live SHIO!!!!