Avinash_Tyagi said:
Joelcool7 said:
Metallicube said:
Joelcool7 said:
Why does everyone here seem to think 2012?
If Nintendo goes by their five year life cycle and Wii continues to shrink in market share, wouldn't you expect Nintendo's next console in 2011? I personally expect Nintendo to give the Wii one last big push in 2010 with Pikmin,Mario,Link and Donkey Kong, Fox hopefully all making appearances. But after such a powerful line up could Nintendo even keep the Wii going another two years?
So if Sony releases the Wand and Microsoft Natal instead of new platforms is it benificial for Nintendo to push into a new generation?
|
2012 would be a 6 year life span. Considering that's the lifespan PS2 had, and Wii sales are tracking similar to it (if not better), I would think 2012 at the earliest would make the most sense. I personally wouldn't be surprised at a 2013 or even 2014 release for nintendo's next console. They have clearly stated simply adding horsepower to their consoles isn't really their focus anymore.
|
Keep in mind Sony never intended to launch their platform after 6 years. Initially PS3 was supposed to launch in fall 2005 and then they delayed it to spring 2006 then finally we saw release in Christmas 2006. I remember when Microsoft showed off the 360 at E3 that Sony announced they hoped for PS3 to launch alongside it. But of course they ended up delaying the console twice second time because the controller had to be completely redesigned etc...etc...
So I think Nintendo will definatly show its next platform at E3 2011 like Sony did when they showed off PS3. Now yes it might not see release till 2012 (Possible) but I don't think we have long to wait before Nintendo brings out the next console. If rumours are true and Sony/Microsoft intend to stick it out a few years if not till 2016 with their Natal/Wand, then Nintendo could single handedly crush the competition.
Lets look at the pluses here. By launching first (If Sony/MS really don't show a new platform next E3)
-Nintendo goes unchallenged and early adopters who might be Sony or Microsoft fans will likely feel the need to get the newest and highest performance console
-Nintendo has made it clear that they don't care to go the route of graphical superiority. This being true the WiiHD will probubly be 2x-3x the PS3. Launching first will give Nintendo a graphical edge even though NextBox/PS4 will be graphically superior upon their launch.
-Casual gamers who may be tempted to buy Natal or Sony's wand will instead see the WiiHD as the third option. If the WiiHD is fully backwards compatable then casuals will quickly adopt the new platform.
So were talking a massive lead. Nintendo could waste Natal and the Wand over night and only a year into their lifespans. Nintendo would then also force Microsoft and Sony to launch new platforms in 2012. Now sure some like myself think PS3 could survive next generation without a PS4 but Microsoft's Natal will be killed and Sony's sales that may be boosted by casual sales will be dead in the water after only a year on the market.
Nintendo could turn the Wand/Natal into the new powerglove. By killing both platforms only a year into their life spans. Lets face it without another platform Natal/Wand will begin to take Nintendo's marketshare and could kill the Wii in a matter of years! But if Nintendo launches a new platform in 2011 they will keep Microsoft and Sony from taking over their marketshare!
|
No, those reasons don't make sense, With Wii overtracking the PS2, why launch another console if their competition isn't? Getting the jump on the competition doesn't help Nintendo, if You're outselling the competition, then there is no need to get the jump on them Graphics and hardware don't win console races, and only raise costs, making a Wii HD wouldn't benefit Nintendo's bottom line NATAL and wand don't show any sign of being able to challenge Wii, so why should Nintendo try and cut them off Sony and MS won't take over their marketshare until they can compete with Wii games, they can't so its a non issue |
I'd like to know how exactly you don't think that the Wand and Natal don't threaten Nintendo's market dominance? Really enlighten me which market analysis group has said they don't expect the Wand or Natal to challenge Nintendo's strangle hold on the market? Which official from which prominent company has said that the Wii will be uneffected?
I can say right now, with the PS3 successfully beating Nintendo down and taking them out of first place has a really good chance at stealing Nintendo's thunder when they release the Wand next year. Think about it a second a 200$ PS3 bundled with the wand and maybe a wand game (Like Wii with WiiSports) would be able to steal a huge amount of Nintendo's thunder. Now I can see where you get the idea Natal won't. But if Microsoft bundles Natal with the Elite for 299.99$ it too will have a profound effect on Nintendo's sales. Of course if Natal goes unbundled and is priced at 200$ then no I don't think it will challenge Wii.
I want to see some quotes of analysts saying that Sony's wand will not steal Nintendo's market share. Right now Sony is stealing Nintendo's market share even without the wand. But give the PS3 another price cut and bundle the wand and a game with every PS3 and Nintendo is screwed. Lets face it, the wand will be bundled with every PS3 come fall 2010 and by fall 2011 the PS3 will be only about 200$ (The Price of the Wii right now).How can an HD version of the Wii (Yes the Wand is a rippoff of the Wiimote) not steal its thunder?
Nintendo is already loosing its market dominance (With a price cut and some hot releases it still got beat by PS3) and when the wand and Natal hit shelves I expect Nintendo's share to start shrinking rapidly. Fall 2010 will see sales of the new Zelda propping the Wii up one last Christmas and then its time for Nintendo to release the next big thing in gaming!
You fail to realize, the Wii is beginning to loose on a monthly basis. The market share is beginning to shrink day by day. Yes the Wii is outselling PS2 but PS3 still came out despite PS2's high sales why wouldn't Wii2 come out despite the Wii's sales. You forget that 2011 is two Christmas's away alot is going to happen in those two Christmas's and Nintendo's Wii will not be overtracking the PS2 anymore!
