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While I don't expect it, I wouldn't be that surprised if Nintendo decided to be the first out of the gate next generation but there is no way they will release a system before Q4 2011 ...

Now, this doesn't mean that I would eliminate the possibility of a "Wii HD" if you're talking about a system that (effectively) renders Wii games at high definition output; but I would consider this an update on the scale of a DS Lite, PS3 Slim or PSP Go.