Microsoft and Sony will have to wait: their new controllers will need some time on the market, and will need new games designed for these... plus, their userbase is finally large enough to really secure profits on the most expensive games out there: a new gen would be back to zero level, with even higher costs... and many devs would feel that situation too risky... so nothing new before 2012-2014 for both Sony and Microsoft...
For Nintendo, i think there are two possible strategies, and the launch of their new console will depend on which is the one they choose...
First: the "Wii 2" is just an update, with a more compact WM+ wiimote, HD graphics output, and fully backward compatible with the current Wii library... so the actual Wii could still stay on the market for two or three years at a very cheap price, $150, then $100... while the "Wii+" could be a kind of "Elit" SKU, released in 2010-2011, and priced at $300, then $250... and the two will co-exist...
Second: the Nintendo's future console will bring something totally new on the table, and will once again be ahead of the competition in terms of innovation and gameplay... holographic 3D, totally new control method, or whatever their engineers may come with... and no backward compatibility in that case... if that's what they do, they will wait till the technology is really affordable, and in the same time, will maximize the Wii profits as long as possible... and that new console won't be out before 2012-2013, if not 2014...
But of course, it's just how i view it, and i could be wrong in both cases... :)
"A beautiful drawing in 480i will stay beautiful forever...
and an ugly drawing in 1080p will stay ugly forever..."
