Can 360 stay ahead of itself YOY?

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Personally I think this is one of the most interesting races at the moment. We know PS3 is going to get ahead of its 2008 YTD sales this week and power away through to the end of the year to have its best sales year ever (possibly its peak sales year). We can be pretty sure Wii will end down on its 2008 sales. A miracle could happen, but a >3 million sales miracle seems pretty unlikely. I'd also make the call that the sales order through the holiday season will be Wii>PS3>360, all that remains is how big or small the gaps will be. One race that will get interesting is whether PS3 will make Sony's FY prediciton of 13 million, but that's some way off yet. Interesting mini races through the holidays, but important for their own reasons, are: the race for line honours in Japan between Wii and PS3; and the race for #2 spot in Americas between PS3 and 360.

But the race in the title is the one I will be watching with interest: Has 360 built up enough sales capital to see the year through in positive territory compared to 2008 (its current best calendar year)?

According to the latest YoY comparison article http://news.vgchartz.com/news.php?id=5640&mp=1 360 has 319K credit left in the account. Over the last 4 weeks 360 has been behind its 2008 sales by an average of ~49K per week, though the gap has been widening with each succeeding week. If the average gap remains the same in the coming weeks then the 319K lead will be swallowed up in just over 6 weeks. In 6 weeks time we should see the first really big sales week of the season (WE 30 Nov 08 saw sales of 393, 718 and 1295K sales for the 3 consoles).

Breaking it down for 360 over the same 6 week period from now to end of November weekly sales '08 were and '09 sales at 48K under (making 360 arrive at end of November >6K up YoY) need to be:

'08        '09

212K    164K

211K    163K

267K    219K

302K    254K

399K    351K

718K    670K

To rise from the current level of sub 160K sales (since March) to stay in touch with those figures is a tough ask but not out of the question. I was personally surprised at how much of a sales spike ODST caused on its week of release, I was expecting single figure % increase. I expect MW2 may have an even greater effect. Forza 3 can be expected to drive some HW sales too, and there is L4D2 to consider as well. 2 strong exclusives, and with L4D being a brand new IP for the HD generation (like Uncharted) there may be some appetite for it among current non-360 owners. I'm sure 360 sales have dipped slightly in the past couple of weeks while people are awaiting these high profile releases, esp FM3 and MW2.

Once November ends the fate of the 360 for the final 4 month is far from certain. If it can arrive in December up on 2008 then it can have a strong December and end the year slightly ahead of 2008.

Things that count against the 360 making it: In the last 2 weeks it's been behind 2008 sales by over 60K, not a good base from which to launch. Its pricing adjustment had little overall effect on sales, but perhaps an Arcade price cut will have a better effect (which could be a December surprise).

At this point I don't think 360 will make it, but I think the game can change. MS may have given away this holiday to the competition resigning itself to being behind PS3 this holidays and this year, but I think they will still want 360 to end with higher sales in 2009 than they got in 2008 so that they can have some good press to report.

If the sales for this week are more or less unchanged from last week it won't be a good look. If 360 can pull out a >150K week this week then things will be looking up for them a little, if it can do over 160K then things will be quite hopeful. If it can get somewhere near 200K then we can look forward to the 360 ending the year on a high note.

Thoughts?