Only because PS3 couldn`t hold 40k+ sales for the rest of year, it doesn`t mean, it won`t be selling a lot during Christmas period.
And i think, you really underestimate Tekken 6 and Bayonetta selling power.
Though, next week i don`t expect high sales too.
I don`t expect huge boost from NSMB, mainly because, Wii already had around 5 huge games released. Huge i mean, which sold 1-2+ mln. copies.
That`s why FFXIII, first huge PS3 game in Japan, will push more PS3 units.
Also you forget, that Wii sales were declining year to year. There is a possibility, that Wii already saturated Japan market at some point.
Anyway, we will see.
So far, after 4 weeks sales data, i overestimated PS3 sales and you overestimated Wii sales.