Hmm PS3 has sold 4 million more then 360 had last year.

[Rath]

RVDondaPC said:

Rath said:
Let me put it this way. The generation generally starts to die when a new console from one of the major manufacturers is released - this event occurs at the same time for all manufacturers.

The PS3 and the XBOX360 will be hit by the downturn caused by the start of the next generation at the same time and it is therefore illogical to compare them in the way the OP does.


Imagine two people in a first to the finish running race where one person gets a five second head start. While the other person may run faster it doesn't mean they're going to cross the finishing line first.

Is that so? Go ahead and look at the decline of the XBOX and PS2 sales. Then go back and look at the N64 and PS sales declines. They are not at the same time. Not even close. You are just coming up with some poor analogy to fit your assumptions that are incorrect. 

Historically that is because the console that is at the lead at the time the next generation begins continues to sell for a measure into the next generation.

An example of the next generation killing sales I believe can be given by this graph.

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=GC&reg1=All&cons2=XB&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&start=38284&end=38935

Now my model of the runners is obviously hugely simplistic and doesn't represent the real world situation well at all when taken as the sole model, but it does represent an important aspect of the situation that the OP ignored. It ignores the fact that outside factors at a certain time can have an effect on the sales of both consoles.

To state that either the PS3 is going to win because it is ahead in sales in the same amount of time since launch or that the 360 is going to win because it is ahead in overall sales is incorrect either way. Both of them ignore certain factors that drive sales.