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RVDondaPC said: You do bring up an interesting point about it only applying to a generation and not a specific console. I only find it interesting because I don't remember there being such a similarly featured set of consoles as the PS3 and XBOX360 since maybe the Genesis/Super Nintendo. If we do look at the past it does not apply though, the PS/N64/Saturn consoles started and declined at significantly different time periods and at different rates. The PS's life cycle was almost double that of the other consoles in term of significant sales. And again the XBOX and PS2 both started and declined at different time periods, with the PS2 again more than doubling the life cycle of the competition. But because the 360 and the PS3 are so similar there may be some merit to that point but looking back at history there is no evidence that a generations consoles start and decline at the same rate for all consoles. |
Not to ignore your other points, but this is the part I find most interesting.
First a question, is there any console in the past that released a year before the others in its generation that had a shorter lifespan than any other in the same generation? Apart from Dreamcast, that is.
Second, I believe that if you should compare any in those previous generations, it should be the two loser consoles. That is Xbox and Gamecube in particular, as well as N64 and Saturn. Of course, they actually released at the same time... But comparing the PS2 and PS1 to the others is pointless, they did not in any way follow the same curve. It would also be interesting to compare the NES/Mastersystem and SNES/Mega Drive as well. (I tried to find data for all of this so I could compare, but failed miserably.)
With the PS3/Xbox however, the situation is unique. If you look at the Gap charts, this one from september, you'll see that they follow each other very closely with quick changes when one system has a priceut.
However well one console is selling, the other sells at a comparable rate, with the advantage to the machine that most recently saw a pricecut. Things like games, economy and such seem to have effected the sales of both consoles equally, at least to my untrained eye. That means that so far they have been following the same curve, except for pricemoves. At a comparable price, they so far appear to be following each other.
There is a definite possibility that the latest Sony move was the stalemate breaker and that the PS3 will kick ass from now on, but I am not certain of this at all. I believe that the public view of both consoles is so similar that they almost can be counted as one. When the next generation hits it will have the same effect on both of them, at the same time. They will die off either quickly, or slowly, but they will die off together. In the end, I believe the xbox will have had a lifespan of PS3+1 year.
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