Hmm PS3 has sold 4 million more then 360 had last year.

[Killergran]

RVDondaPC said:
How many people here are aware that product life cycles are bell shaped curves?? And if you have Curve A and Curve B, then you shift curve A to the left one year, it gives that curve a significant advantage in terms of total sales for a large period of time even if Curve B is overall a greater curve. Right now the 360 has that significant advantage, but the PS3 has statistics that suggest it has a larger bell shaped curve for the PS3 which indicates at some point the PS3 will outsell the 360. Does everything work out in the real world like it does in theory? No. But if I was an educated betting man, I would be betting that the PS3 would pass the 360.

If you look at the sales numbers you may not recognize the bell shape but that is because of the seasonal sales fluctuations over the course of a given year. But if you go year by year sales the bell shape will reveal itself.

I am fully aware of the bell shape you are talking about. I just believe that it applies more to each generation than to each console. Especially since there are so many games that are on both platforms, and both platforms are so similar in who they are targeting. The PS3 will feel fresh as long as the xbox feels fresh, given that they have a similar userbase.

If you align launches you also miss a lot of date specific events. Like economic factors, game releases, pricewars, public attitudes, marketing drives, next console generation etc. All of which have huge impacts on sales.

So by discounting these factors you lose a lot of value to any analysis of console sales, and you will be much less accurate.