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I agree with this sentiment. Especially in the US the PS3 will never ever get within 6 million of the 360, imo. And as far as world wide, I think the 360 will still have more sales than the PS3 overall at the end of the generation. If the PS3 Slim can sell for $299, obviously the Elite could be sold for a lot cheaper and MS knows this.  I mean, the Elite doesn't have built in WiFi (not too expensive) or Bluetooth support, or a Blu-Ray drive, and the Cell is more expensive than the 360's CPU.   The whole $50 rebate program was just a small test to see how a $250 Elite would sell. The way I see it, the Elite could easily drop down to $249 at any moment, and the arcade to $179/149, and by next year the Elite could easily be $199.

Then we have big wild cards like Natal and "Sphere" which we cannot guess what the impact of either will be, but based solely on developer interest and enthusiasm as well as press coverage and enthusiasm, Natal seems like an early favorite.