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txrattlesnake on 16 October 2009
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dorbin2009 said:
txrattlesnake said:
I just don't see how they will manage it. Final Fantasy XIII releasing on Japan exclusively for PS3 in December will ensure that 5 million PS3s will be sold in Japan by the time GT5 launches in Japan in March which will push another 500,000 PS3s sold there by the time Versus releases and another million PS3s are sold in Japan further pushing the PS3 margin there.

A difference of 8 million in favor of the PS3 in Japan by gen's end (10 million PS3s sold to 2 million 360s sold there is larger than the 360's current worldwide lead of 7.3 million). And the PSP has sold over 12 million in Japan. There's no reason to think PS3 won't do as well.

Basically, Sony can keep PS3 selling well enough in Japan until Nintendo releases a console so powerful that Sony has to replace the PS3.

Meanwhile in the West a lot of 360 exclusives are also PC games and they need to keep their console powerful enough in comparison to gaming PCs that Western gamers will feel that they are getting a console just as viable for those types of games for a Western console to be successful.


First of all, no Final Fantasy game to date has sold 5 million copies that quick. I'm not sure what it is fanboys are smoking to make them believe that FF13 is going to be the second coming of christ, but it's not  the case. Maybe if ONE of the systems exclusives sold more than MGS4 then I would be more inclined to believe you. Uncharted 2 might be the best game this year, and I'm even skeptical that it can push more than a million out the door opening week.

Second of all, I have never seen this much skepticism over a company holding a 7.5 million lead..ever.

If the PS3 outsold the Xbox 360 by 90,000 every week, it would take them about a year and a half of persistant sales like this to topple it. This ignores

1. The increasingly loud rumor that the Arcade is going to be priced at 150/160.

2. NATAL

3. Halo: Reach

4. New GoW,other franchise that could be pushed heavily.

6. Common sense

The 360 is still outselling the PS3 in America, regardless of the price cut. In Japan, where handhelds dominate, the PS3 is finally starting to actually tread above water. Europe tends to swing either way at this point, but it's going to be neck and neck for quite some time.

 

 

 

1.  I didn't say Final Fantasy XIII would sell 5 million copies.  I said that as a result of FF XIII (and there will be other Japanese exclusives that come to the PS3 because of FFXIII), there will have been over 5 million PS3's sold ltd in Japan when GT5 is released in March.

2.  Sphere (I guess that's what its called) comes out in Japan first.

3.  Final Fantasy Versus XIII exclusive to PS3 following its release there will be 7 million PS3s ltd sold in Japan.  To 2 million 360s if they get really lucky with Natal. 

4.  Sony has new Western franchises and a slew of Japanese only exclusives that will be made for PS3 as the gap between PS3 and 360 continues to grow in Japan.

5.  Common Sense?  Common sense tells me its better to buy something for $299 (the price will probably be lowered again when the 250 gig model comes out) with everything in the box than to have to buy something for $299 with quite a bit of everything left out of the box.

MS's biggest hope for the rest of this year is getting the Arcade down to $150.