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What both platforms need is some stellar games for these new interfaces. I haven't seen that from either yet (though AE4 does pique my interest). Further more they will need great advertising of said software. Microsoft is great when it comes to advertising their hits. That alone will determine adoption. I would say 10 million would be the amazing lucky high cap for either device. 15 to 20 depending on how long Microsoft is willing to hold out on the 360 this generation.

2011 = 5 million
2012 = 9 million
2013 = 11.5 million
2014 = 13.25 million

Adjust upwards if either of them develop a true hit software ala wii sports, play, fit, Nintendogs, brain training etc still think max is 20 million if the stars align.