Prediction(s):
Every prediction made in this thread, and in this post will be wrong, including this one!
DS will never catch on in the USA the way it has in Japan or even in Europe.
Wii will never catch on in Japan the way the DS has, but will be an enormous hit in the USA as the primary console for casual and Nintendo gamers (15-20 million people), and the secondary console of choice for many PS3 and 360 owners. Wii will top 40 million units in the USA by 10-20%, surpassing the NES in five years, PS1 in six years and PS2 sometime after that.
PSP sales will slow down as developers realize that it is being bought for pirated software, and multimedia feature primarily. Sony will think of a new media system that is strongly anti-piracy for the next generation, greatly aiding software sales. Having regained the hardware mantle, Nintendo will lose a bit of its focus with portables, and launch DS2 after PSP2 - losing 20-30% of additional marketshare to Sony in the portable arena. Nonetheless, DS and PSP sales should reach something like a 140/45 million split.
Xbox 360 will sell nearly as much software in Japan as PS3 when the generation is over, despite a userbase 3 to 5 times smaller.
All three consoles will be supply constrained in spring of 2008. Why? 360 and PS3 will get another round of price drops with GTA IV, MGS4, etc. Wii will see strong sales from Smash Brothers, Wii Fit, Mario Kart - and Nintendo will be shipping a ridiculous amount of supply to N.A./Europe this Christmas - resulting in low shipments for Feb/March. It will take until May or June for things to even out again for all three companies.
PS3 will never outsell Wii in a year. PS3 will outsell Xbox 360 for at least one year.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
