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If the 2D Mario had the essence of the old Mario games, made with a high play value, had 2 players at the same time (or more), was targeted to families/all ages and had the right advertisement... Then I think that could have put GameCube in front of Xbox with a small margin.

This move of butting out a Mario game, not to far into the console generation might have triggered the effect of less canceled games or something. Who knows. Anyhow, would not have done anything notable against the PlayStation 2.