Wait, 10.3% of NSMB DS' sales came in the first week? That doesn't fit in with VGChartz numbers
It has it at 6.22%.
As for him saying that it will sell 10 million in its first fiscal year. What does that mean for christmas? Let's see.
Say it will sell as Wii Fit did in that period in Q1 (what Wii Fit did in 09 will equal NSMB Wii in 10). It sold 4.2 million, and that was the by far best selling game in the period. Thinking that NSMB Wii will beat that is unlikely, so ~ 4 million in Q1 seems logical. That means he expects it to sell around 6 million during the christmas period.
Edit: Believe it or not, but selling for many years isn't that common on Wii. Miyamoto isn't talking about it selling some copies, he's talking about it being an evergreen title - something Super Mario Galaxy wasn't, and it is debatable if Mario Kart Wii was.
If he is indeed saying it will be an evergreen title, it means he's saying it will sell Wii Fit-esque, rather than be a larger Super Mario Galaxy.
I mean, look a bit closer at it. He's saying it will sell 10 million in 4 months, but not drop off a lot. He cannot possibly believe that it will sell under 20 million; this is not captain obvious at all.
