Lifespan of the Wii?

[robjoh]

Shane said:
Once their current projects are complete, developers will be looking at how those projects do. They're not going to jump ship on their future PS3 projects on that basis unless their current ones bomb. If FFXIII does as well as it usually does, Square's not going to throw their hands up and say "We did what we originally anticipated, but Wii has more users, so screw Sony."

Unit sales of PS3 are going to be so heavily tied to pricing for the first couple years that it's a tough call just how well they'll do initially. If it's any indication, which it may or may not be, by the time PS2 shipped 15 million units in the US and Japan (leaving out Europe for the sake of ease), it had sold just shy of 10 million of them. I get the feeling Sony will meet their 2008 targets whether they need to or not.

If Nintendo Wii is sitting on 3 times the user in Japan, no 3rd party publisher will say screw the Wii owners we are going with the PS3. It was the same when DS and PSP launched. The PSP had the support and DS as all belived would die hadn't. Now 3rd party is selling like crazy on the DS in Japan. More important if the PS3 version doesn't sell as well as SE thought you will find that Sony will get dramatical lower support (Of course we can't say anything about this yet).

I have not said that Sony wouldn't deliver 15 million consols until 2008. I have asked if they are going to sell that many? Because if not, we might find that the next year they only ship 5 millions.