| sharky974 said: Now we have so many threads about how PS3 is going to beat 360 now..face facts, the numbers for PS3 just dont work out, probably even worldwide. The last worldwide shipping totals which is the closest we have to 100% accurate worldwide sales imo (yes, it's not sales, but it's something close), is 31.4m 360 and 23.8 PS3 as of June 31 2009.
So Xbox is 7.6m in the lead.
Since we get ship numbers every quarter, using those..Sony has to ship 1 million more per quarter for 7 quarters just to catch up. that's basically two years, meaning June 2011. Last year in the 4Q Ms shipped about 1.5m more than Sony..lets say Sony flips that this year, theyre still 6.1m behind, with slow Q's coming up. It's going to be very hard to gain 1m a Q when for example, last June 31 Q both only shipped ~1m units.
The problem is I just dont see that as possible, MS will bring out Natal, Halo Reach, price drops of it's own, all things that will prevent PS3 from gaining. Natal alone could bring a big spur of 360 sales.
I think Pachters NPD predictions illustrate how difficult an opponent 360 is. Even in it's first month with all the hype, Sony could barely outsell the 360 which had no real price drop at all. Sure Sony does better in EU and has no competition from 360 in Japan, but it still just shows how tough microsoft hangs in there.
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While your math is correct, your argument is dependant on the 360 having the same lifespan as the PS3. That's a possiblity of course, but I highly doubt it. The PS2 is in its 10th year and it's still selling very competitively, while the original XBox (which came out after the PS2), has already long stopped production. History would suggest that Sony is serious about its consoles having a 10 year lifespan. Microsoft has never made such statement. So to me, it seems that Microsoft will release the next XBox within the next 2-3 years. So while the PS3 may not catch up to the 360's sales in the next couple years, they'll have a good 5 years after the 360 has stopped production to catch up. I would predict that the PS3 will surpass the 360 in sales by 2014.
