PS3 will never beat 360 this generation.

[heruamon]

Reasonable said:

loves2splooge said:

The week of Oct 3rd the PS3 beat 360 worldwide by 83,727. Clearly the PS3 slim and price cut hype isn't what it was in September. It's dying down. At a rate of 83,727 per week, it would take the PS3 89 weeks to overtake the 360. So basically Mid 2011. Assuming that the PS3 can continue their strong performance in Europe/Others and Japan while MS and Nintendo just sits by idly and allows it to happen. We'll have to see if they can keep it up. You'd have to assume that Sony would pick up the pace even more to claim 2nd by the end of 2010. Another PS3 slim price cut won't happen for awhile and at this point further exclusive software isn't going to make a big impact on hardware sales. Except maybe FFXIII and Dragon Quest X (since the Japanese love those series). We're so far into the generation that I'd be surprised if you think what's available now isn't enough to entice you. At this stage, each big name title will cause a small spike but that's about it.

I don't know why people keep quoting weekly averages when considering when console X might outsell console Y, etc.

Games consoles have big seasonal swings, depending upon region, and of course in US / Europe will sell far more over Christmas than other times.

If one console strongly outsells another (as 360 did vs PS3 in US last holidays) it sees a massive boost worth many weeks of 'average' sales.

I'm not saying PS3 will catch the 360, I'm just saying taking a weekly average from a level period of the year isn't the way to consider it.

360 might put more distance between PS3 this holidays, they might be roughly even, or the PS3 might close the gap if it dramatically outsells the 360.

Another factor is games.  Certain titles can drive big spikes, again worth many weeks of normal sales.  Consider when FFXIII hits in Japan, the PS3 could easily eat up weeks and weeks of gap in one week due to that if it shifts HW to a dramatic extent.

People looking at the gap need to watch for when the big titles hit and particularly major holiday periods - those will decide places far more than average sales.

What he said!