Sorry guys, I got back in a bit drunk last night and started posting.
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Flight is essentially the same motion as swimming using what is essentially an adapted fin, it is innate in a lot of creatures. But that's not the reason it evolved in the three main types of flying animal, there has to be a catalyst for evolution. I found this paper from university of Berkeley, it is worth a read.
http://www.ucmp.berkeley.edu/vertebrates/flight/evolve.html
To summarise the paper, basically we have a more than sufficient fossil record to show the evolution of the wing and there are four main hypotheses on the evolution of the wing.
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Wings evolved from arms used to capture small prey. (This seems rational, so we can ask whether the ancestral forms were actually doing this.)
Wings evolved because bipedal animals were leaping into the air; large wings assisted leaping. (This is possible; any amount of wing could assist leaping. Remember that we first need phylogenetic evidence for a bipedal running or leaping origin.)
Wings were used as sexual display structures; bigger wings were preferred by potential mates. (This is a non-falsifiable evolutionary hypothesis — we cannot test it.)
Wings evolved from gliding ancestors who began to flap their gliding structures in order to produce thrust. (This is reasonable and possible, but only with phylogenetic evidence for an arboreal gliding origin.)"
And it goes on further. But it says more than I can say.
Oh and I loved the way you made up a number with no basis to develop a probability, where did you learn that trick? Because if I ever did that at university for a thesis they would chew me up and spit out.
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Let me ask something. Creationists often accept that micro evolution occurs (Standing taller, getting stronger etc...) in reality, do you seriously think after billions of years of animals micro evolving it will essentially just be the same creature?







