Here is my take on Patcher: If Wii is under supplied...360 was over supplied...and PS3 is somewhat close to demand...wouldn't it mean that Wii has the most to gain when supply issues are ironed out? Theoretically, selling a profitable console also gives Nintendo the most capacity to up manufacturing capability by buying more factories...However, Sony and Microsoft are both huge companies and can dig in to their pockets to up supply as well to offset incredible short term loss with the potential for even larger gain later. It seems that since Wii is fairly close to GC internally, upping capacity should be easier than normal, unless there are manufacturing bottlenecks from incorporating motion-sensing technology into the Wii. I think of the Wii as similar to the DS in terms of manufacturing. Originally, making two screens was problematic. But, looking at the sales numbers, it seems Nintendo sells about 1 to 1.5 million DS's per month. Wii should realistically be able to see manufacturing levels rivaling the DS allowing for say 500k sales per region/per month, should demand continue to rise. As for the 360 and PS3, Microsoft is far closer to reaching the all important tipping point. At this point, Microsoft will no longer lose money on 360 hardware because the component costs will drop. I believe this will predicate a price cut, and eventually allow Microsoft to release a more potent XBOX 360 (XBOX 480?..). This, strategically, would come after Halo 3 has worn off in boosting sales. Ideally for Microsoft, this comes next year, just as Sony starts to pick up steam and Nintendo threatens Microsoft's leadership position world wide. Sony is going to have issues this year. Although from a software stand point, PS3 is only successful (over a million units sold) in one market right now (North America), in terms of manufacturing, Sony is having its best launch ever. When demand begins approaching supply, the stories of PS3 sitting on shelves will dissappear. I actually expect the PS3 to become scarce for a week or two with the European launch, as that is the one territory where hype seems unmarred by dissapointing reality. I think at least temporalily (averages untl June), Sony sells 80-100k units in Japan per month, 100-180k in North America, 150-250k in Europe per month. Here is how I see the rest of the year: 300k and 500k may happen for January, but demand will slow for PS3 I think before it slows for Wii. SSX Blur, Wario Ware, Wii Play, Sonic, Zelda, Wii Sports, Rayman, Trauma Center, Elebits, Monkey Ball, Red Steel, Madden all will keep portions of the Wii audience busy in February, while helping to spread the word of what Wii does. I would say about 6 of those are worth purchasing for any type of serious (Zelda, Trauma Center, SSX, Elebits, Sonic, Monkey Ball) or casual gamer (Zelda, Wii Play, Wario Ware, SSX, Elebits, Rayman). Compare that to PS3 for which Resistance and Madden are the primary sellers...The 360 will sell in January-February because Gears, Lost Planet, and smaller hits will continue to help carry it. Consider this: I play adventure, action, baseball, racing, boxing, fighting,role playing, party, strategy, and ecclectic games ( some fun ecclectic games: Jet Set Radio Future, Jet Grind Radio, Killer 7, Viewtiful Joe, Pikmin, Blast Corps, Parrapa the Rappa, Gunstar Heroes, Kid Icarus...). Right now, the Wii has what I want in party games (Wii Sports, Rayman, Monkey Ball), ecclectic games (Trauma Center, Elebits), adventure (Zelda) games. Sonic, Wii Play and SSX Blur all have potential to add to what I want, this month. Once DDR, Fight Night, Mario Party 8, Fire Emblem, Day of Disaster, Mario, Metroid, Dragon Quest, Smash Brothers, and Paper Mario are released, my game library for Wii will be approaching 20 games and meeting just about every expectation I have for the system. Although unannounced, I also believe baseball and racing games will be alot of fun with the Wii remote, which leads me to believe they are in development. I do not think I am that atypical of a gamer, which is why I think the Wii can make up serious ground in 2007. I think the 360 will be punctuated by occassional titles like Lost Planet, which get alot of hype, sell fairly well, but only appeal to hardcore gamers. PS3 has to bank on alot of new IP this year. Sony is now capable of making great games, but in terms of success, the record is..mixed, not Sony wants to count on in North America. Japan will be far less receptive to IP that does well in America for either 360 or PS3, unless it is made in the same vein as what has proven to be a hit in Japan. It seems only Nintendo has a good read on all three markets. With all that said... Wii sells the most units/month this year 360 sells 2nd most for most of the year...until the end when PS3 sales begin picking up in Japan and matching 360 sales in the West with games like MGS4 (if it stays exclusive)
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
