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excluding Wii Sports.

First of all it will almost certainly be a Wii or DS title.

I can't see NSMB catching Nintendogs.

On the Wii - Wii play may not be caught by Wii fit due to the release of Wii Fit+

Wii Fit+ will be huge but unlikely as big as the original.

Mario Kart wii will top 20 million but I can't see it catching Wii play.

WiiNSMB, SMG2, new Zelda will all be 8 to 10 million sellers, maybe a wee bit more but not much.

So for me the title will go to Wii Play.