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kitler53 on 05 October 2009
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dcIKeeL said:
kitler53 said:

just a couple things.

1. halo reach, fable III, GeoW 3,...the release of Halo ODST should be enough proof that new releases of old franchises don't push hardware.

2. 32.26M - 24.79M = 7.47M lead for the 360 which is not 8+

natal is the only wild card but the 360's lead will be cut down quite a bit going into next holiday. i don't think even a wildly successful natal can get the 360 to sell some 5ish million units over and above the ps3's next holiday sales.


Well, ODST was still widely viewed as an expansion pack, so it's a bit unfair of a comparison. Think of Natal as the ps3 slim, obviously, it got the ps3 to sell a good amount over the 360. Natal with normal success will do what the slim is doing with the ps3. I think Natal will be insanely succesful however because of how much support and hype it has from the casual audience, mostly novelty curiosity.

Also Sonys motion control will propel Natals sales even more. Sonys motion control is similar enough to the wii in the eyes of the casual audience (the most important audience in this regard) that it might hurt it's sales just a bit. In term, when Natal releases it would make more people take interest and be compelled to purchase Natal because it's so different. It won't be viewed as the same type of 'toy' as the wii and sony motion controls, preventing people from reasoning, well I have a Wii already, why would I spend hundreds of $$$ for this. People will think, well I don't have this.

at ODST - an expansion pack that sold 2.2M units in it's first week but only had about a 20k bump in hardware sales.  if a game with that much selling power can't give a decent hardware bump what chance do other games have.  and i'm not just picking on halo, gears, ect..  cause this holds true for nintendo/sony releases as well.  there are very very few titles that can really push hardware.  halo 3 was obviously one of those games but the 2nd/3rd interations of a franchise in a gen won't help...not like the first release at least.

at natal - the part that you are counting on causuals to push 360 hardware because of natal is a quagmire in itself.  by the time natal releases the wii will have capture what, close to 100M casuals.  so you are expecting what?...causuals (who are defined as such because they don't commit much time/money into video gaming) are all going to become multiple console owners?  imo very doubtful.  natal can somehow grab the attention of millions of consumers that were not already enticed by traditional HD gaming or by the wii's motion controlled gaming? a bit more likely but how many of those people are there? 

 

even if natal is a phenomenolly awesome gaming experience i just have trouble seeing natal really push 360's out the door.  but hey, i must admit i am really excited to see 360 sales in the weeks that follow natal's release.