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kitler53 said:

just a couple things.

1. halo reach, fable III, GeoW 3,...the release of Halo ODST should be enough proof that new releases of old franchises don't push hardware.

2. 32.26M - 24.79M = 7.47M lead for the 360 which is not 8+

natal is the only wild card but the 360's lead will be cut down quite a bit going into next holiday. i don't think even a wildly successful natal can get the 360 to sell some 5ish million units over and above the ps3's next holiday sales.


Well, ODST was still widely viewed as an expansion pack, so it's a bit unfair of a comparison. Think of Natal as the ps3 slim, obviously, it got the ps3 to sell a good amount over the 360. Natal with normal success will do what the slim is doing with the ps3. I think Natal will be insanely succesful however because of how much support and hype it has from the casual audience, mostly novelty curiosity.

Also Sonys motion control will propel Natals sales even more. Sonys motion control is similar enough to the wii in the eyes of the casual audience (the most important audience in this regard) that it might hurt it's sales just a bit. In term, when Natal releases it would make more people take interest and be compelled to purchase Natal because it's so different. It won't be viewed as the same type of 'toy' as the wii and sony motion controls, preventing people from reasoning, well I have a Wii already, why would I spend hundreds of $$$ for this. People will think, well I don't have this.