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TheDynamo said:

Also, let's not forget...

Sony will release most of the games that you listed before Quarter 4 of 2010.

If they "shoot their entire load" prior to the Christmas Season, how will they combat the attack of Halo Reach and Project Natal?

What games come out for Sony in Quarter 4?

If they come out before Q4, they'll completely overwhelm the 360 "heavy hitters" in Q1-3 that you mentioned earlier.  Then MS will have some heavy lifting to do in Q4 because the gap will be well, well under 8 million by that point.  (barring 360 price cut in Q1 or Q2)