Speculation on the next Nintendo Console

[Dr.Grass]

Alterego-X said:

Dr.Grass said:

1- Your 'historical' argument is useless because (a) the strategic aspect is more imporant and (b) ANY good statistician will tell you that to make a prediction based on known data you need a big enough sample space. What am a saying? There have only been the NES,SNES,N64,GC (I'm not counting Wii) so to deduce that much just from these is rather presumptuous.

2- Sony has been the only 'twice-in-a-row' winner and they launched first so there's some incentive.

The "historical trends" argument is usually wrong, if people connect it to irrelevant coincidences, and call it the cause-effect relation, without detailing the relation.

For example, claiming that since shark attack and ice cream sales increase in the same months, ice cream attracts the shark, (instead of looking for a reasonable common cause, in this case, the summer season)

You did exactly the same with suggesting that  that historical first releases might have caused long term successes, without explaining the connection. Please, explain, why do you think that releasing early gives a significant advantage?

OMG. You picked that up! I'm impressed.

So my 1^st and 2^nd points are using contradictory arguments. In fact my 2^nd point is using the argument I tried to disprove with my first. I don’t for a second believe in historical points, but I was just thinking of covering my bases. This is what I mean:

If he says he expects no 1^st launch because of historical then my 1^st point is showing how the historical argument is very weak. I put the 2^nd point there so that IF Nintendo were to go historical (which doesn’t make any sense) then why not copy the only twice-in-a-row-successful  company in history?

You could probably have picked up that I don't think the 2^nd point is significant since I didn’t deliberate on the point at all. If it was a serious debate I would’ve put point 2 as a subargument to point 1.

Capiche?