I wouldn't rule out that Nintendo could launch first. Some reasons:
1- Your 'historical' argument is useless because (a) the strategic aspect is more imporant and (b) ANY good statistician will tell you that to make a prediction based on known data you need a big enough sample space. What am a saying? There have only been the NES,SNES,N64,GC (I'm not counting Wii) so to deduce that much just from these is rather presumptuous.
2- Sony has been the only 'twice-in-a-row' winner and they launched first so there's some incentive.
3- Nintendo might want to grab the bull by the horns: The other 2 consoles HAVE to stick it out because of the huge investments. Nintendo could drown them with an early launch.
This doesn't mean that I think they'll do it. I'm just saying some people here are overly presumptuous.
What would I like? For Ninty to go head-to-head with MS and Sony and launch something technically comptetitive. I'll still buy though - Doesn't matter to me what they do.
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