This is my objective look. :
Sony have done well. PS3 Slim is much better priced than PS3 has ever been, and looks attractive.
M$ seem to have tried to lessen the hurt this christmas with 250GbHDD packs. The FM3 pack is great for europe and MW2 for America. Sky will help UK for 360.
I think it's wishful thinking that PS3 can make up 6 million sales from Jan Aug ( the slowest time for consoles sales ).
If Natal captures even half of the casual market that wii has, the gap will increase from Natals release to the end of the gen not close. Natal will play a big influence to whether 360 walks it or holds on. It will be interesting to say the least.
I predict this:
Gap as of January 2010 7 million.
Gap as of 2 weeks prior to Natal release 6.2 million
Gap as of Jan 2011 9.2 million ( I think Natal will be hugely successful. )