erikers said:
It's not totally meaningless at all. It's just the angle you took to try and make my point not look valid. ioi Changed the Wii totals upward of 700k. You can go find the exact totals the Wii sold in Others for the last quarter. The Wii has only sold 3.93 total since launch there. If he was only off 700k the whole time since LAUNCH that's an 18% error ratio. However we're talking about being off 700k in just one quarter where the Wii sold somewhere around 1.4-1.7 million. We're looking at an error percentage around 35-45% and possibly higher if anybody can recall ioi's numbers before he changed it. It's pretty hard to be off by 700k in a region where the wii sold less than 2 million total for just one quarter period. Just face it, without weekly sales to guide you to near correct numbers (Japan) or monthly sales with only 2 markets (USA/Canada) it's almost impossible to predict the sales of 10+ regions all with different buying styles. When he has 0 references to go off of for 3+ months in a row, his Others numbers end up being wildly off, it's been seen time and time again. Why is this hard for you to admit? All it means is we have to wait until the next financial report to get near accurate Others numbers. I like this site probably more than you but I'm not going to be blind like you just because I don't want to admit the site needs much more help tracking PAL numbers. By the way, I'm not even going to go into how the Ps3 could have been raised by 400k last quarter when it's only sold 1.98 in OTHERS since it's launch. You can do the math on that one. |
Ah, now we're talking real and meaningful numbers!
Regarding that adjustment, I'm not exactly sure how it happened, but you're probably wrong in saying that the adjustment was just for a single quarter. My impression is that he fixed the quarter's numbers (I don't know the amount because I don't have the old numbers for reference), and then he re-ran his estimations for later weeks with new parameters to correct the previous mis-estimations. So I think the adjustment is not as bad as you're saying.
Obviously, Others is the hardest market to track. But it is true that regarding the PS3 at least, there hasn't been a big need for corrections. I remember noticing many news articles being posted in this forum with numbers from SCEE for certain specific countries (as in a local rep reporting current shipped numbers to some news outlet), and the numbers almost always made sense in relation to vgchartz's sold-to-customers numbers. There were also reports from tracking companies, and again, they did make sense.
In any case, the subject of this topic is trends, with only partial support from vgchartz's numbers. Those trends are worrying for SCEE's strategy with the PS3, and no tracking mistakes will change that. We're potentially looking at a Christmas in which the only PS3 version in the market is the gimped one! If that happens, it's either because they wanted it to happen, or because they misread the market's intentions.
My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957
