Wii 10 mln. or PS3 5 mln. in Japan. Who first?

[peachbuggy]

Netyaroze said:

The best thing is we can see the results in a few months. How should I back it up when there is no data which shows a similar situation that happened in the past. I think the Wii wont be so strong this year unlike last year. I can`t back it up with data because there is no data and I have some reasoned points. I mentioned them in my first post. We saw a decrease of sales over the whole year for Wii just look at the curve. Wii is significantly down. Before 2009 most people even could imagine that WII will be so weak.( And before 2006 most people couldn?t even imagine that WII would be successful). We saw that the Slim PS3 was a huge hit in Japan. And I think the market saturation for Wii is way higher than for HD Consoles. I think that FF will make a bigger impact than you think, thats nothing we can argue about because nobody knows it. Even Famitsu dont knows it.

I didnt make this conclusion without a reason. You see it otherwise because you think in a different way about it but in fact nothing is more wrong or more right. Because its a total new situation right know there are way to many factors which counts and you cant say oh the WII will sell more in the holiday season because last year he sold more. Thats no reason. If there wouldnt be a significant change in the market you could see a trend but now its not that easy. He backed his claim with numbers from last year but the factors which counts changed.

And my prediction is not unlikely. Because if it was that unlikely why should someone make a thread about it and why would the thread be 17 Sites Big if everyone thinks its not going to happen. Even if you think its unlikely some people dont and this fact makes it likely All I said was that Wii wont be as strong as he stated. And it wont maybe and thats not unlikely why do you think you can judgde this.

Another thing is that nobody on this planet can say whether the PS3 Software which comes will sell more consoles or the Wii Software. I think it wont help to sell more Wiis than the PS3 Software helps to sell PS3s thats my Opinion. Its an Illusion to think you can exactly predict the Holiday Season in Japan. Especially now with so many new factors. How could you even back up a prediction like that. Thats just impossible. How could you back up a financial crash how could you back up something which not happened in the past.

Ok to make a concrete prediction, so we can see who was right : My prediction is that the Wii is not going to sell more Consoles than the PS3 in the holiday season (in Japan). PS3 will reach 5 Mln before Wii reaches 10 Mln.

We will see what happens. If the Market was so precictable why was noone on this planet able to predict this situation right here 3 years ago. Why are there so many suprised people all the time ? The Japanese market is not that easy to predict as the FF Bundle with movie came out the WII was down somewhere 17K and the PS3 sold 57k and everyone was surprised. The Slim PS3 came out and everyone except a small minority of people were surprised. I was surprised and i made wild guessings.

If someone for example said 1 week before it happened. Its going to be just a 200% increase I backed it up with data from the PS2 Slim launch and I would say thats not going to happen it will sell a lot more. His claim is better because he backed it up with data ?. The Analyst were all wrong with the prediction of the markets before. This situation is new and maybe I am wrong and the Wii will be a huge success FF wont be as strong as I thought and the Wii Pricecut had a huge long term impact and the PS3 will fall down to pre Slim Levels. Or maybe the PS3 will be from now on the leader or maybe they will sell on par. All this statements cant be backed up with data except the first one because thats what happened in the past. The same thing with GT Noone can predict if its going to sell 4 Mln or maybe 8 or 12. And except the 12 Mln nothing could be backed up with data because it has not happened before. If we say ok the Numbers were for example 9 Mln 13 Mln 10 Mln 18 Mln . And I would say this time it will sell just 5 Mln another one would say no it will sell atleast 11.5 Mln I have the data from all GTs and in Human history its never happened before that GT sold less than 9 Mln. He backed his statement up with data I didn`t but that makes his statement not more probable. (Infact i think it will sell 8-10 Mln)

We never had a situation like this before this Holiday season might be different in Japan. And a statement backed up with data is not more likely or unlikely. And the rest of the Facts are just allegations and they are a matter of perspective. My prediction is as unlikely or likely as his. You could say that his claim is a little more probable then mine because the Wii sold more in the Past but thats no reason why my claim should be unlikely. But even that is no real argument.

The PS3 sold almost as good as the Wii in 2009...... and now we could start from the beginning. I believe the Wii will sell more because.... and I believe PS3 will sell more b/c...

Its just believes and not knowing so its impossible to Judge which scenario is more probable. Its impossible and arguing about it is stupid. It would always turn in a circle. And thats the reason why there is so much arguing its the same like arguing about taste or Religion there is no difference. But argiung is fun so we all wont quit, if the people arguing a lot that means that the result cant be predictet. Of course there are things which can clearly be seen like FF will sell more than 1 MLN LTD WW. But a lot of things are just beliefs. Of course you can say the Wii will sell next month on the same level as the month before if nothing dramatically changed or a game came out. Or the market is saturated (see even if you know a lot of factors there is always a big chance to be wrong) The market is unpredictable you can predict a scenario well if you know a lot of factors. Data can help. But if there are many new factors and a lot of factors which are unknown you can just guess. And this situation is such a Situation we all gamble and putting our money on a horse.

The difference is that ioi makes extremely accurate predictions here every single week, whereas you are making predictions based purely on fanboy hope, not even expectation. Wonder which one of you has more credibility around here?.....