ZenfoldorVGI said:
Well, it can't play first party exclusives, no matter how powerful it gets it. I doubt we'll be seeing LBP on it anytime soon, or maybe the new Zelda game? Of course, you could always steal them. Of course, I could steal console games off the back of a truck, and argue that console games are free. Also, lol, when graphics reach diminishing returns(this generation) to an extent that can't be surpassed by developers due to costs(next generation) and when the PC no longer has the weak, graphics argument as a crutch, how exactly will console gaming be crushed when consoles do everything the PC does, and have motion controls, first party exclusives, and differentiated features, yet require no upgrading, and maintain virtually equal graphics, while being cheaper, being plug and play, being piracy free, and selling single player games at a much much faster and more consistant rate? What then whopsided argument guy? When exactly will the PC crush console gaming? 1998? Let's hear more about this. Let's hear about PC gaming and all its great strengths. I think I've lain out my argument pretty well in this thread. Obvious truths have a way of totally ripping apart speculation. Now, shio, do you really think your argument could withstand scrutinization? How bout mine? Wanna give it a try? Because what ends up happening, is I lay out a very valid argument as to why PC gaming isn't as dominant as it once was, and why the future isn't nearly as bright as most of the entheusiasts paint it out to be. Then you respond with a whole lot of nonsensical arguments, and that response gets lost in a shuffle of words, and its weakness never really gets the credit it deserves. This is upsetting. I've done a lot of research and reasoning to tear down most of the spin surrounding PC gaming, and your on the spot spur of the moment damage control serves to marginalize it, simply because what, most people are skimming, and assume you gave a valid retort? No. I highly suggest anyone just joining us to go back a few pages, and read my initial posts. Not to toot my own horn, but they're very insightful. |
Zen, you're a smart guy, but you're overstating your case.
First, the OP is 'when will PC graphics outpace consoles?' That's it. He left out games, but we know that's what he means. The answer is already. No arguments, no console is more standardized HW, etc. PC graphics are already ahead of console for games, that is a fact like saying 2+2=4. Fallout 3, CoD4, etc... heck even going right back to Oblivion, all run at higher res with more effects on a fairly reasonable gaming rig (sorry for pun) than 360/PS3 could manage.
You, and others, are moving into trends, etc. which is fine, and there I agree with you, the momentum is swining from PC to consoles in many ways. But don't confuse that with the OP. Anyone arguing an average gaming PC isn't already a fair bit ahead of consoles are deluding themselves or have weak technical understanding.
Now, to that very point, trends, and whether we'll see lots of PC games go way beyond PS3/360 in the near future... let me try and help you put that to bed:
1 - high end graphical games are getting expensive. Cost is becoming a barrier right now, as noted by heavy duty PC graphics guys like John Carmack (probably still THE coder for high end graphics)
2 - console gaming is about convenience, and while the move of many PC orietated titles to PS3/360 has reduced that somewhat (patches, installs, more bugs, etc) a console is still way more convienent that a PC
3 - user cost - a PS3/360 gets you a pretty decent gaming rig for less cost than a PC, and with probably less ongoing costs for maintenance (actually, due to Live costs 360 is actually more costly than PS3 but I digress)
4 - development streamlining - if I'm IW and I'm delivering MW2 on PS3/360, I could put in a lot of effort to make the PC version graphically superior, but should I? What is the extra cost? Will it really see a lot more sales? No, so what we're seeing is PS3/360 becoming the 'minimum spec' for a lot of games and the PC version only gets a relatively minor boost in graphics.
5 - developer investment - a lot of developers are getting behind consoles now, even former PC stalwarts like Valve, Epic, Crytek, id, etc. Simply put, most developers are putting their focus on the console version and sales, not the PC. This, combined with 1) and 4) above means we're going to see only a few games really target a big difference with the console version.
So we're going to see graphics settle around what the consoles can support vs what the PC can support (i.e. it's not that the PC couldn't support more, but that developers aren't going to be delivering PC versions that way outstrip console version) and we're going to see (probably) more and more gamers who historically would almost certainly have turned to a PC turn to a console instead.
We're also going to see better SDKs, etc. become a big focus to reduce costs of high end games, exactly as Carmack and others are discussing right now. I expect to see a big shift from pushing the game engine to pushing the development tools.
Finally, don't confuse motion controls, etc. with the equation. PC's will drive probably all major interface efforts for a while - I'm looking beyond just gaming obviously here - and by their design can easily support any piece of technology a console might support. The reason some tech might not hit PC will be business driven only - i.e. if their is no profit or reason to have that tech available to a PC. But technically it will remain possible. A PC today could support every control method available to console plus methods not available on console.
Finally, finally, don't mix up whether games are on PC or not. That is again a business decision. LBP won't be on PC due to contracts and exclusivity, not because it couldn't. In fact, on PC it would sport even higher res textures, etc. and it would be even harder to tax it's physics engine.
So I agree with you on trends, etc. but you are confusing your clearly strong views on that with technical matters, and in that you are perhaps not quite on the money.
Also, I do expect graphics to see jumps over time, but this will be linked to cheaper development first, I think - i.e. once really efficient methods of reducing costs are found for high end graphical games are found attention will turn back to pushing graphics - we're a visual species and love detail and immersion, and therefore graphics will, current bump in the road due to costs, remain over time a focus I'm sure.
Try to be reasonable... its easier than you think...
