Just theorizing here.
Maybe Nintendo will come out with a WiiHD or whatever in 5 years, which will be basically the same with better graphics, controls, memory, etc. It will somehow transfer all your Wii Channels, games, Miis, etc. over for those who upgrade.
However, both versions of the Wii continue to be sold at different price points and most games will run on both (like PC games which scale to different graphic cards). So the Mario HD plays on both Wii and WiiHD, but obviously looks (and perhaps somewhat) controls better on WiiHD.
This way Nintendo can answer to Microsofts new console for those who like the lastest thing, without asking the current casual base to have to switch. I think a lot of the new market will be resistant to the idea of upgrading every 4-5 years. Certainly our grandmothers buying Wiis will not be so keen on getting a new one, and likely won't ever care if it's HD or not.
Meanwhile Nintendo continues to build out Wii Channels and functions in their quest to make it an essential home item, without much concern of losing their base when the next generation rolls around.
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