why do people think 360 will come in third?

[carlos710]

mrstickball said:
A few things:

#1. We do have X360 software sales, Microosft has consistently stated and shown that the X360 in Europe has the highest attach rate ever for software, totally destroying your baseless claims of European countries/retailers not stocking X360 software. The X360 attach ratio for software is around 5.7-6.0 in Europe, and has been above 4.5 since last year. So if anything, European software leans in the favor of the X360. Sports games, like in the US, fail to chart for the Wii whereas they've done well in 06 and 07 for the X360 platform in most countries.

#2. XBLA will kill Wiiware, because it has a 2+ year headstart. There are 100+ games in dev for WiiWare? That's nice, but the X360 has just as many in development. The X360 has cornered the market in such software, and has had the backing of every major developer (sans SE) for the XBLA platform. Capcom, Konami, Ubisoft, as well as others already have released titles, and plan many, many more. That's ontop of the 50-odd exclusive, non-remakes out there.

#3. Carlos, if the Wii only has a 4.0 attach ratio, and 150m units sold, it'll be the lowest software-selling #1 console since the SNES. The Playstation 2 has sold OVER 1.3 billion software units. Therefore, it's a trickle-down effect: mediocre 3rd party sales in the West = no/few exclusives, which will continue to hurt the Wiis poor attach ratio. I understand the whole "oh it's moving decent software since there are so many hardware units", but again, the numbers have stagnated for 12 months. No console has done that, ever, except for handhelds. At some point, it's either going to change, or Nintendo might not get alot of happy 3rd party developers.

I'm not trying to be on the anti-Wii train, but I'm trying to be honest. Not everything is beyond perfect in Nintendoland. With the Wii getting alot of ports, and second-rate games, as well as multiports is hardly a sign of a PS2-like console leader. And everyone in the Wiicamp is saying that it's going to blow the PS2 out of the water: exactly how is it going to do that when a supposed uber-unique game that's supposed to be a million-seller, Zack & Wiki, bomb in both the US and Japan, going to send signals to developers to jump on with major efforts?

And having said that, it always makes me tend to believe that the race is going to be alot, alot closer than you 150m+ Wii sellers think.

 #1 Check my previous posts about software sales in Europe... attach ratios don't matter when you are so behind of your competition in hardware sales. I used an attach ratio of 3.0 for the Wii and still would be enough to have a large advantage.

#2 I don't think that was for me... however besides WiiWare we also have the VC games. Anyway, i don't think neither XBLA nor WiiWare are strong selling features.

#3 Yeah, however i only used a 4.0 for attach ratios... more likely it will be AT LEAST 7.0 by end of gen... that would put the Wii over 1 billion of software sales as well. However i find hard to predict attach ratios so thats why i only used what we have right now, a 4.0 (however i thought it was almost 5.0?)

Finally, nobody, including Capcom predicted Zack & Wiki would be a million seller... they are aiming at 620k for RE:UC and thats coming from a much bigger franchise. They even stated in their forums that Zack & Wiki wasn't aiming at 1m+ when people asked about expectations.

Most people agree that something like 400-500k worldwide for Z&W would be enough to make capcom happy. It's a budget game after all