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Going to say 250k.
Nintendo did a much better job than Sony at hiding the incoming cut so sales didn't slow down these lasts months because people were expected a cut (if they slowed down the reasons were others).
As a result I don't think they will jump as much...



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !