S-E: NEW Wii in 2011, motion 'impact' for PS360 = SMALL!

[Avinash_Tyagi]

DM235 said:

Soriku said:

DM235 said:
@Soriku

Slight exaggeration on my part, and I didn’t expect anyone to take it seriously. But with sales already declining, Nintendo will be forced to keep lowering the price to maintain market share. In two years it will probably be selling for $150, and it just won’t be making enough money to make Nintendo shareholders happy. Therefore I think they will introduce a new console, most likely priced at $250 again, to keep the momentum going.

You said it will go on “just like the PS2”. Well, just like the PS2, if Sony can support it and the PS3, why cannot Nintendo support the Wii and the Wii HD?

Also, I think the gaming market is somewhat split right now between HD gaming and casual gaming. I think that PS2 really captured both markets, which is why it was so successful. And although I agree that the Wii has expanded the casual market, I don’t think it will be as successful as the PS2.

And no, I don't have a crystal ball and I cannot see the future, but if I had to guess, that's what I think is going to happen. It is entirely possible that Nintendo will release some totally amazing game or peripheral and go on to sell another 100 million units, and make me eat my words.

The reason why sales are so low right now is because they haven't released anything major besides Wii Sports Resort WW and MH3 in Japan. And these are past mid year. The first half nothing notable came out so a decrease is expected. The second half they're trying to get things together with NSMB + Wii Fit Plus + Wii Sports Resort holiday boost + a price cut WW. In Japan they have pretty big releases yet to go. To me I think they'll fare off better. Next year the Wii will still be going in with the new $200 price AND multiple big Nintendo games and third party games. SMG2, Metroid, Zelda (it's either this or Pikmin in 2010 IMO. I'm saying Zelda), a new Retro project likely, MH3, etc. They just need the right SW to really boost sales and a price cut doesn't hurt either.

They can release a new console when the Wii hits 100 mil, sure, but that'd kill off potential Wii sales and it's not like Nintendo is looking to get a new handheld anytime soon despite the DS being over 110 mil, so I don't know why they'd do it with the Wii. I'm saying 2012 for the successor.

With regards to the DS, except for Japan, where I think everyone already has a DS or two, sales are slowing down.  Everywhere else they are still going up.  Mind you, this is after two hardware refreshes.

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=DS&reg1=Japan&cons2=DS&reg2=America&cons3=DS&reg3=Total+Other&weeks=275

The same cannot be said for the Wii.

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=Japan&cons2=Wii&reg2=America&cons3=Wii&reg3=Total+Other&weeks=160

There have been quite a few new Wii peripherals, but I don't see what Nintendo could do for a hardware refresh (besides new colours).  And I don't see sequels by themselves doing too much for Wii sales.  Pikmin wasn't huges sales wise.  But I totally forgot about NSMB.  I think it's different enough from SMG to draw new people in.  Heck, NSMB for the DS is what convinced me to get a DS, when SM64 wasn't enough.  And you are right that new games + price cut + great sequels could have a synergistic effect and really boost sales.

I'm sure someone at Nintendo is crunching all of these numbers, trying to figure out when would be the best time to release the new Wii...

The concern with the Wii isn't hardware, or even price really, its software, they lost momentum with Wii Music and Animal Crossing and haven't really recaptured it since, NSMB Wii will be key to Wii's future.