Wii at 35 million worldwide XBOX 360 at 29 million Jan 1st 2009

[Lord N]

You need to think over your numbers a little more before posting. You claim that the 360 will be at 15m at best by the end of the year. Right now it's at 12.75m, leaving 2.25m to cover in Nov-Dec.

In 2006, the 360 moved roughly 3m units during that span. I think we can all agree that this year, it should improve on that number with Halo, Mass Effect, CoD, Assassin's Creed, Lost Odyssey, and a price cut across the board. That puts it at nearly 16m just if it duplicates last year's sales.

It moved three million units during the 4th quarter of 2006, which would include October. As for the games you listed, Halo has already done most of the damage that it's going to do, and the rest are either multi-platform, unproven IPs, or target the core gamer and the hardcore gamer.

So far in 2007, the 360 has sold roughly 7.6m consoles. Add in 3m (which will almost surely be higher) and you come in at roughly 10.5-11m sold in 2007. You said that at best, the 360 would be at 23m sold on January 1st, 2008. So, after it has seen at least one more price cut, you expect the console to move about 30% less units than it did in 2007...

This is false. The 360 had about 7.75 million sold at the beginning of the year. That means it has sold exactly 5 million so far in 2007, not 7.76 million. It may sell 7.76 million to 8.5 million by January 1st, but it doesn't have that now. If the 360 had 7.76 million sold so far this year, that would put it at 5 million at the beginning of the year. Even if we use your number of 3 million for November and December, that would mean it sold 2 million in the entire world from Nov. 2005 - Oct. 2006, and I don't think I need to explain why that's retarded.

As for next year, let's take a look at that, shall we? Microsoft will not drop the price on the 360 before GTAIV comes out, and it will probably only be by 50 bucks, which means that it will still be above mass market price point. It does not have any exclusive titles next year that have mass appeal as far as the general gaming public is concerned, nor does it have any sequels to proven system-selling franchises. I know that its sales have been spectacular in N. America the past few weeks, but it is still selling dead last in Europe and Japan. The 360 had a price cut this year and one of the most hyped games in history and it will still have sold