Wii at 35 million worldwide XBOX 360 at 29 million Jan 1st 2009

[Lost tears of Kain]

RolStoppable said:

rocketpig said:

Rol, you're right. I was accidentally including some holiday 2006 sales in my chart so the 360 will probably come in around 8m this year.

And I keep hearing the "people who want the games for 360 already own the console" thing even after the huge spike post-price cut and Halo 3 launch. It's quickly becoming a strawman argument. The console seems to be selling itself. Before Halo 3, people were claiming that the Halo fans already owned the console and that Halo wouldn't move many consoles. Then the price cut hit and sales jumped. People said it was because Halo 3 is coming. Then Halo 3 launched and sales soared again. People said it was because of Halo. Now, over a month after the Halo launch, 360 sales are still high. The argument is becoming pretty worn out.

News flash: next year when the 360 cuts its price again, more people will buy the console. There are still plenty of people who haven't jumped on board simply because of cost. Halo, Gears, and the other good games don't magically go away after six months. They become part of an established library that will continue to move consoles for the rest of the 360's life span. Also, the argument that because RE5 and GTA won't move consoles because they're multi-plat is ridiculous. The 360 has, and will always have, a price advantage over the PS3. That in itself guarantees many people will opt for Microsoft's console over Sony when they want those games.

It's amazing how many people consider the 360 to be the next Dreamcast, even if they don't fully acknowledge what they're arguing.

I know that it is a tired argument (people who want the games of the 360 probably already own the console). Let me clarify how I mean it.

I don't think that the games in 2008 will move hardware at a higher rate than the games released in 2006 and 2007. Obviously we will see some minor bumps in hardware sales when some major game releases (except for GTA IV, that one will move some more systems), but overall the average weekly sales rate of 2007 should be sustained, but not improved, in 2008, regardless of price cuts. Sustained sales (the 8m for 2008 I am expecting) don't mean that the system will share the fate of the Dreamcast.

My reasoning is based on last generation. The Xbox and GC had great games and more coming down the road, they had price cuts and they reached the $150 price point much sooner than the 360 will. But did sales rates improve for these two systems in their 3rd and 4th year on the market? Not really. Most people refused to spend $99 on a GC, despite it having some of the best games last generation. The Xbox didn't fare much better.

I don't consider the 360 to be the next Dreamcast, I consider it to be the next Xbox. Although I expect the 360 to end up with higher LTD sales (30m) than the Xbox, because the competition this time is weaker, mainly due the one year headstart of the 360.

Well rol we have to go back to the fact that, those games will always be motivation to buy the 360, i know ALOT of people who are going to get a 360, and i mean ALOT, just waiting for the price to drop, or waiting on a certain game. Now i can easily agree with you, but i think the 360 will fare better then you think, at least possibly. Im basing this on that this generation is alot different from last in terms of sales. We have a console that is currently taking the lead, but is in my mind, not consisting of to many of the ps2 owners, its expanding its userbase. I see the wii of course dominating, but pushing alot more of hardcore gamers onto the ps3 and 360, then the ps2 did, resulting in more sales.

 That and the 360 still has a stellar lineup next year, along with the other two consoles