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Maybe it's not entirely the same thing, but I want to present similar situation....
http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=Eternal+Sonata+-+PS3&reg2=All&game2=Eternal+Sonata+-+X360&reg3=All&game3=&weeks=52
That's Eternal Sonata 360 vs Eternal Sonata PS3 that was released year later, with one year sales.
As you can see, 360 version performs a lot better (even that PS3 version outsells it at some point, but only for a little while).

I'm not sure whether ToV will perform the same way, but I hope it will do better than 360 version.

 

Edit: scratch that, didn't read whole topic.

So here's my prediction
1st week: 255k
Lifetime: 550-600k EDIT: Forgot that sales of Tales of games are pretty much frontloaded...I change it to 400k