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If you are not a cheap pirating bastard and the price difference isn't a big deal to you and you like the idea of DL'ing games and movies straight to your system and are ready to go and like the sexy sleek look I'd say go.

If you aren't interested in purchasing your games and you don't care about the size difference and price is a factor for you I'd say 3000

You say your not sure how old games would be priced. I'd hope Sony would be smart about this and price them at used games price... I mean think about it... they'd get way more sales and they dont need to pay for materials to make and ship the game. I'd wait till the system comes out and then browse the library. and decide there.