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ioi said:
Bundles are counted and the software is accurate. Batman last week vs this week counts for another 200k but then the new Gundam game probably offsets that by 100k the other way. So you saw a ~300k software boost this week on 550k units of hardware sold. As per my news article on this weeks sales, I feel this points (amongst other factors) to a fair number of existing PS3 owners upgrading.

Wait. So basically youre using your 30-40% "guess" based on the assumption no human being would buy a PS3 and get a used game with it, or a blu ray, or simply rent games before blind buying them if theyre new owners?

I think thats pretty absurd.