| TheSource said: I don't think we're getting a Wii price cut anytime soon. Wii went up more than 360 from July, which costs less and had more compelling software released (Batman, better Madden sales). In month 23-34 (Sept 08 to Aug 09, inclusive) Wii sales by NPD were 9.23m at $250, PS2 sales by NPD in months 23-34 (Aug 2002 to July 2003, inclusive) were 8.10m at $200 - the first PS2 price drop was from $300 to $200 in Spring 2002. PS2 peaked at 8.66m in month 20-31, and then declined to 7.50m in the year running from month 26-37. The best 12 month Wii sequence so far has been month 17-28 (March 2008 to Feb 2009) at 10.90m, and in the six months since, the drop has been 1.7m. You can believe what you want, but the drop isn't that precipitous given that Wii had a) more room to fall, and b) has a higher price point than PS2 did in an aligned launch comparison. The Wii drops in sequential years (month 17-28, then month 18-29, then month 19-30, etc) is already begginning to slow alot, I suspect it will rest at 8.5m to 9m for a while heading into Black Friday and Christmas, unless Nintendo cuts price. Not entirely convinced we're going to see PS3 beat 360 or Wii in September. I think all three systems will be close, but the current order will remain intact. Given that all systems besides PS3/PS2 increased about 5-10% from July PS3 would probably have done like 140k for the month. The price cut impact was mainly for the last week of August, so the system probably did something like...30k-33k-33k-114k by NPD figures. For September, you'd expect maybe 70k-55k-50k-50k-50k for PS3 coming off that big weekly jump. Wii at probably 70k-80k x5, and 360 at 50k x 3, + 100k + 75k from Halo 3 ODST. So, I'd go something like 325k for X360, 275k for PS3, 375k for Wii. DS will be 700k, PSP probably 175k, PS2 maybe 125k. I've been checking PS3 stock allocations locally since the Slim launched, and it essentially sold out in some places week one, but its been well stocked since then. So sales are up, but its going to be more of a spike than a bump. |
Do you happen to have previous September NPD results compared to August? I wasn't aware that September is usually a larger month than August (or is it a 5 week vs. 4 week thing?).
Anyway good analysis, it will be interesting to see what happens.
