Now, I'm not a professional analyst like Patcher is, but I think a price drop in November could be a huge mistake.
If it does well, there could be huge shortages all around, and it could lead to a loss for the quarter if their parts haven't dropped at all in price. It's possible that the Wii is already at a very cheap price for them, as they've pretty much already hit their economy of scale and are meanwhile using older hardware. As proof I'll remind you of when the Japanese Yen was really strong. At that point Nintendo said it was losing I think 20-30$ on each wii. At a 15-20% increase on the yen, that means they were making probably 10-15$ on each wii sold, and I think that is backed up in several places.
Now, if the wii has been only making 10-15$ nearly 45M units into the lifecycle, and have also been making a profit since the beginning, then it means that the wii has only dropped maybe 10 dollars in parts pricing over that much time, reinforcing the idea that the hardware is older and already very mainstream.
A better idea would be to drop the price in feb or march to keep up sales after the holidays and at the same time, supplement the loss with the holiday sales. It also helps that there are some good wii games coming out in 2010 as well.
