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I don't think so
it's true that many gamer who already own a ps3 will buy the slim model but I don't think it will be that much.
maybe 3-4% will buy a second ps3 
it's sure have it's effect on ps3 slim first month sales maybe 15%-20% IMO
but on ps3 slim life time it will be near nothing



2010 prediction

Xbox 360 49m - 52
ps3-44.5 - 46m
halo reach will be the highest selling exclusive of 2010
xbox 360 will do is first million selling week in december 
xbox 360 price will drop arcade - 179$  elite - 249$  and will be bundled with natal 

115 or more million seller game on xbox 360