| dschumm said: 2 down 1 to go. I had predicted November but the Wii beat my eatimate jsut like Worldwide. I am still sticking to my December 2008 for the Wii pasing NA prediction. |
The thing is this: the 360 sells very well in November and December. So there's a good chance that Wii/360 sales will be very close during those two months. If the Wii is ahead in September or October, it will probably maintain its lead through the holidays.
Right now the Wii is 2.43 units behind the Xbox 360. Let's say that it needs to make this up in 10 months to be likely to catch the 360 by the end of 2008 assuming Nov/Dec sales are a wash for both 2007 and 2008. This means the Wii has to make up 243,000 units per month from January '08 through October '08. Those numbers are clearly not impossible, but I'd say they're unlikely.
Of course, you could very reasonably question my assumption that December/November sales will be a wash between the two companies and if the Wii is in supply in 2008, then perhaps sales will be much higher through the holidays than they've been.
