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Zucas on 07 September 2009
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darthdevidem01 said:
Zucas said:
darthdevidem01 said:
@Zucas

whats the limit of stuffing SONY can do?

1 million, 2 million?

i

Well it depends.  If Sony were to sell out of PS3 Slim first shipments within the first 2 weeks then obviously they would be able to get a large second shipment.  Within those shipments retailers would start thinking the hype is there and saving for holiday season.  Thus it would have more shipped but less on the sales floor which would cause another sellout.  This perception will continue to build up stock in the back to have holiday supplies. 

Thus when it comes down to the holiday shipments they will ask for more because they figure that all they have saved up won't be enough.  So the amount of stuffing will depend on how well the PS3 slim sales now.  I don't know if they could get something like 360 did in 2007 (had to do with Halo 3 in most cases) but they could get a fair amount.  I'm thinking they could stuff at good 1-1.5 million if they were to have continued and strong sales throughout September and October.  Potentially even more if GT5 does come out and with a bundle.

 

It's of course hard to tell now but perception is good right now.  The hype is there, the early sales are there, and the potential with GT5 is there.  If Sony plays there cards right they can have some pretty massive shipments in the holiday quarter.  Potentially as high at 6 and 6.5 million. 

ok....

so In short, if say PS3 sells 10 million in the fiscal year march 09 - march 2010

then is it possible for SONY to say they have "shipped" 13 million......basically stuffing the channel with 3 million PS3's

REMEMBER

God Of War 3 comes out in march & FF13 in the west then too?

Well potentially.  I mean that would suggest that sales in the last quarter would be particularly slow because you aren't going to be able to stuff channels too much in non-holiday quarters.  But if they were able to sell 10 million within those first 9 months or 3 quarters then yea it is very plausible that 13 million could have been shipped.  Although that probably isn't going to happen, I'm just trying to point out the stuffing happens in the holiday quarter.

I would assume that if 10 million PS3's had been sold to consumers between April 2009 and March 2010 that given stuffing about 11.5-12.5 million would have been shipped.  Shipments in that final quarter might be slow and the first quarter of FY11 may be slow (look at MS after they did this) but it would definitely give a bright outlook compared to their projections. 

 

It is quite possible this could happen to and I will not deny it.  But the beginning to that route will start in the coming weeks.  It's a great opener no doubt, but the route to hitting that projection is going to be decided in the next 2 months.