Nobody can prove whether the Conduit was or wasn't profitable because they either don't have or aren't privy to the specific information regarding that particular project.
Of course the same could be said for most HD games in all but the most extreme cases when sales were significantly below the initial production run (ie. Bionic Commando).
Mostly it boils down to preferential, biased guesstimations used in support of which console they own/like best, presented in a pseudo objective way.
It's trickier to gauge costs with the Conduit, because much of the R&D that went into that game (the engine) will be used in future projects by HVS, meaning subsequent titles should cost less to develop (see Gears of War 2).
The only "failure" would be if Sega dropped HVS, indicating a clear underperformance. Since that hasn't happened and we will presumably be seeing more titles on the Wii by HVS, that should be considered enough of a success for HVS and Sega, just not for the Wii fans who tried to convince other gamers how much of a field changer the Conduit would be for the Wii.
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