More Superchunk Predictions, Get 'em while their hot!!

[Game Over!]

superchunk said:
So dtewi says to me "You need some new predictions superchunk". So here they are, full of Superchunkyness. All in all, after looking at past sales I noticed that a console's sales usually remains constant for the first 4 years. By that I don't mean exactly, but on average. So, I don't see a whole lot of change in 2008 compared to 2007. Basically what I did was get a full list of all consoles/handhelds from NES era on and their WW sales from wikipedia and vgchartz. (Before you tell me I'm missing someone, find the WW sales on them) Here they are in order (Millions)>in retail in 2008<: Gameboy:.................118.69 >PS2:..........................108.43< PS1:..........................102.49 >GamboyAdvance:........80.02< NES:............................61.79 SNES:..........................49.00 >NDS:............................48.83< N64:............................32.93 Genesis:......................29.00 Xbox:...........................23.66 >PSP:.............................22.84< GameCube:..................21.47 Dreamcast:...................10.60 >Wii:...............................10.57< >Xbox360:......................10.51 Saturn:.........................10.00 TurboGrafix-16:............10.00 Gamegear:.....................8.56 >PS3:..............................4.32< 3DO:...............................2.00 Jaguar:...........................2.00 NeoGeo:.........................1.00 Sega Nomad:..................0.94 As you can see the Wii is marching on up the ladder will definitely pass one more console (Dreamcast) before the month is over. Now for some fun. My predictions in my sig have stated that I see 17m Wii's sold by Jan 1 2008. That means the only other console it will pass this year is the Dreamcast. I have extended out my spreadsheet to Jan 1 2009 and I will list each one below and expand on my prediction with consoles that are still in retail. Wii will pass the Gamecube in WW sales in March 2008 Wii will pass the Xbox in WW sales in May 2008 Wii will pass the Genesis in WW sales in October 2008 Wii will pass the N64 in WW sales in December 2008 The only other system I see within Wii's grasp in 2008 is the PSP. For that I had to look more in depth to the PSP's current sales. They seem to be averaging 600k per month and peaking in December at around 1.2m. If I throw this into my infamous spreadsheet I see that Wii should pass the PSP in December of 2008 as well. Wii will pass the PSP in WW sales in December 2008 Oh, ironically, Wii will pass the 360 in NA sales in August 2008. I will hold off on putting out numbers for mid-2008 or Jan 1 2009 WW sales until January. To jump way out, I think the Wii will max out around 85m. Well what do you all think? I will put these in my sig as well.

 Maybe this doesn't make a big diffence, but the Xbox has sold at least 24 760 000 by March 2007 (see Worldwide Hardware Shipments HERE). Now, in the end of 2007, it's probably 24,8 millions.