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Seece said:

tombi123 said:
Remember Uncharted released when the PS3's install base was about 7.5M.
This doesn't matter, people continued to pick up Uncharted all the way up to its userbase of 23+ million today.
Releasing on a smaller install base effects sales, especially sub 10M install bases.
I am going to say Uncharted 2. Reasons:

1/ It looks better than the first and has online multiplayer.
Uncharted was already a quality game anyway, being a little bit better isn't going to get someone to buy U2 that wouldn't have bought U1 ...   

The online multiplayer will turn all those rentals into sales. Plus, U2 is garenteed a meta score of 90+%.            

2/ much more hyped than the first.
Hype does not translate into sales. Mass marketing does, hype doesn't ...

It does have an effect though. I dont just mean on internet forums, I mean in stores as well (it will also have a bigger advertisement campaign).
3/ Left4Dead only released last year.
.. so?

will people want another one so soon?
4/ I feel the hype is lower for L4D2 than the original.
Per orders are already ahead of what L4D's were

well der... how many people pre order a new IP? You should also realise that the pre orders in NA (L4D's strongest market, Uncharted's second strongest) are higher for Uncharted 2 than for L4D.
5/ L4D will have stiff competition from Halo and (Infinity Ward) CoD.
Like last year when it was up against COD (which still did 5 mill+ on 360 alone, and Gears 2)

yeah but this call of duty will be bigger, and Halo is bigger than Gears, which isn't an FPS...

Lifetime:

Uncharted 2 - 3.5M
Left 4 Dead 2 - 2M