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Nintendo will not satisfy demand this Christmas. How much would it take to satisfy demand? Nobody knows, that's the problem with not being able to satisfy demand. I think the guesses in the original post are not bad. Japan may need more than 2.5 million units if Wii Fit takes off...but we'll never know because I don't think there will be 2.5 million units in Japan anyway. I don't know if there will be enough units of Wii Fit, either.