MikeB's past predictions

[Kynes]

mrstickball said:

The Truth said:
@ dtewi

In a year your argument is going to fail. With Sony motion control from a tech standpoint beating out the Wii controls and with Natal aiming to exceed that further, the Wii will truly be, from a tech standpoint pathetic.

And from a developer standpoint, the Wii will still be the go-to device for 3rd parties that aren't willing to spend $20 million+ on a game.

Just because the tech is nice, doesn't mean that will entice every developer to build for the system. The Wii is cheap to dev for, offers decent motion controls, and (best of all) offers a platform with more than twice the user penetration of the PS3.

And that's what makes the PS3 pathetic. Why would you really want to develop an exclusive title for the worst-selling console that is also the most expensive to build games on? Economics trump tech, which is why the PS3 has been languishing in 3rd place, and continuing to burn holes in Sony's slimming pocket.

Time has shown us that the best tech isn't always the winner. The PS1 didn't have the best tech compared to the N64 or Saturn. But what it offered were unique economic characteristics (cheap development, good but not perfect tech, and a killer price point) that led to it's success. Sony has none of those.

Ding ding ding! We have a winner!