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MOMENTUM!

Your prediction is like smashing two pieces of rock together, and saying that two colliding planets would have the same result., because it's all the same, but on a billion times bigger scale.
Except that you ignored MOMENTUM. Huge and fast objects have lots of it, and if they would suddenly lose it, and it would transform into energy that would make them explode.

You can't ignore the consoles actual popularity, because you would ignore MOMENTUM too. PS2 sold a lot after the Slim, because it was already popular, its popularity brought even more exclusives, sales, good word of mouth, etc.
The PS3 is not that popular, and it is losing exclusives, sales, gets bad word of mouth, so it goes a downwards spiral instead of upwards.